From The Editor
Retailers React To Obama's Bill
February 23, 2009
By John Roach, Editor, Retail Solutions Online
President Barack Obama's $787 billion economic recovery bill drew mixed reactions from the marketplace. A Fox News poll revealed that a majority (51%) of Americans support the bill (compared to 40% who do not). On the other hand, the Dow Jones fell 3.8% the day after Obama signed the bill, and, two days later, hit 7,465.95, its lowest point since Oct. 9, 2002 during the last bear market.
Retailers, who have been particularly hard hit by the economic crisis, appear to be pessimistic about the bill's prospects. Last week, we ran a Retail Solutions Online poll asking readers the question, "Do you think Obama's plan will work?" A resounding 81% of respondents said "no," claiming that increased government spending will actually hurt the economy, not help it. Only 15% thought the bill alone would help the economy. The final 4% thought the bill would help, but the addition of the NRF-proposed national sales tax holidays would benefit the economy more.
We also gave poll participants the opportunity to write additional comments, and an impressive 31% of you responded. Your replies conveyed an obvious passion for the bill and its economic effects. Here are several of the more noteworthy (and anonymous) comments we received from retailers:
"What part of this pork-filled package goes to retail? None. This is payback for Obama getting elected and nothing more. Close to 90% of this ‘must have it right now, every second counts' bill will be spent in 2010 or later. It's garbage."
"If you want to stimulate the economy then you need to give people back more of their hard-earned money. You need to cut capital gains and corporate taxes. The package passed by Congress will actually lengthen the recession, and I feel there will be more retailers closing their doors this year."
"This is a poison pill not a stimulus package…. At the recent NRF conference, a noted economist stated that the percentage of GDP (gross domestic product) tied to consumer spending had risen from roughly 60% in 1980, to nearly 72% before the fall last year. The forecast is that, over time, consumer spending will retrench to where it once was, a prediction that will have major consequences for the retail industry. We can no longer spend beyond our means; there needs to be more longer-term thinking than we are seeing."
"We must remember that a large part of our economy is based on wants, rather than needs. The recovery is focused first on NEEDS, not wants…. Until something better comes along, President Obama's recovery is going to get us going again."
"All Obama had to do was to look back in history to the Reagan Era, when inflation was high and unemployment was twice as high. Reagan did all the right things and turned around the economy for many years to come. All Obama has done is make sure that he has spent America's grandchildren into bankruptcy. If you think that he is done with just this $787 billion, you are mistaken. There will be no less than another $3 to $4 trillion more before Obama is done."
Retailers' opinions about the bill boil down to a simple question of political philosophy: How much involvement do you think government should have in the economy? Your answer to this key question will most likely determine whether you view Obama's plan as a "stimulus" package, which will help the retail industry and the overall economy, or just another government "spending" bill. However, a final determination of Obama's plan won't be so simple, nor will it be reached any time soon.
Have a comment about this article? Let me know. Contact me at jroach@vertmarkets.com.

